Forecast for AUD/USD: US Producer Price Index will fall below $0.65

The AUD/USD declined 0.20% on Thursday, closing at $0.65148. The Australian dollar fell into negative territory as a result of the US CPI report. There are no economic indicators from Australia or China to impact this morning. Because of the paucity of economic indications, the Australian dollar will be at the mercy of market risk sentiment …

The AUD/USD declined 0.20% on Thursday, closing at $0.65148. The Australian dollar fell into negative territory as a result of the US CPI report.

 

There are no economic indicators from Australia or China to impact this morning. Because of the paucity of economic indications, the Australian dollar will be at the mercy of market risk sentiment during the morning session. Economic uncertainty resulting from China’s dismal economic data, as well as the Fed threat, continue to be headwinds.

 

US Session

Another important day lies ahead, with the US producer price index and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey in the spotlight. A more pronounced rise in the producer price index and improved consumer confidence would provide the Fed with more fodder for thinking.

 

Economists predict a 0.2% increase in the producer price index in July, following a 0.1% increase in June. Economists predict that the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will fall from 71.6 to 71.0.

 

The producer price index indicates the direction of domestic producers’ selling prices. The PPI covers selling prices from the first commercial transaction for products and services, making it a leading indication of consumer price inflation. Rising producer pricing index patterns indicate a pick-up in consumer inflationary pressures.

 

Aside from the economic calendar, investors should keep an eye on the news wires for Fed commentary throughout the day.

 

AUD/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD was seen hovering near the lower end of the $0.6545 – $0.6526 support range on the Daily Chart. Significantly, the Australian dollar held below the 50-day ($0.66668) and 200-day ($0.67325) moving averages, giving bearish short-term and long-term price signals.

 

The 50-day EMA moved further away from the 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish price trend.

 

The 14-Daily RSI reading of 36.23 indicates a bearish trend and suggests a drop to less than $0.65. An AUD/USD move through the 0.6545 – 0.6526 support band, on the other hand, would allow the bulls a shot at the $0.6600 – $0.6620 resistance band.

4-Hour Chart

On the 4-Hourly Chart, the AUD/USD is trading at the lower end of the $0.6545 – $0.6526 support range. The AUD/USD remains significantly below the 50-day ($0.65777) and 200-day ($0.66630) EMAs, providing negative near-term and longer-term price signals.

 

The 50-day EMA has retreated from the 200-day EMA, indicating a negative price signal.

 

The 14-Daily RSI reading of 42.29 indicates a bearish trend and predicts a drop to less than $0.65. A move through the 0.6545 – 0.6526 support area, on the other hand, would allow the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.65777) and the $0.6600 – $0.6620 resistance band.

Risk disclaimer:

 

Please note that this article does not offer any instructions or suggestions regarding investment decisions. It is important for you to conduct your own research or seek professional advice from a qualified professional before conducting an investment decision.