According to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the SEC has a “window” starting Nov. 9 in the United States to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings — including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product — in the days leading up to Nov. 17, but this is only a possibility.
“At the same time, the SEC issued delay orders for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie,” Seyffart said in a Nov. 8 article on X. “If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed,” he added.
The reason for the short comment time is that when the SEC extended the deadline for a number of pending spot Bitcoin ETF registrations, it chose Nov. 8 as the last day of the comment period. The comment period for three files, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF, will reopen on November 17, implying that they would not be authorized or refused until after November 23 at the earliest.
While the time frame for receiving all twelve submissions closes on November 17, Seyffart stated that the SEC might potentially reach a decision on nine of the twelve petitions before January 10. While the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is far from certain, both Seyffart and Balchunas expect a 90% likelihood of approval by January 10th, next year.
While market participants await the SEC’s verdict, crypto asset management Grayscale has allegedly begun conversations with the regulator over its application to transform its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Grayscale has been in communication with both the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance after winning its court battle with the agency on Aug. 29, according to persons familiar with the case.
As the anticipated likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF approval has grown, so has excitement in the crypto market, with the price of Bitcoin increasing by more than 30% in the previous three months. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise has boosted price action in other key assets as well.
Solana (SOL) increased by 93% in the last month due to scaling improvements, whereas Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) increased by 36% and 20%, respectively.
While many in the sector believe an approval will spark the next bull market, some experts are sceptical that the surge will last.
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